The Philippine stock market is buzzing with activity this February, with major corporate moves and potential landmark IPOs shaping investor sentiment. Let’s break down the key stories: Jollibee’s expansion into Korean dining and coffee, the coal contract uncertainty for Semirara (SCC) and DMCI (DMC), and the much-anticipated possible listings of fintech giants GCash and Maya
Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) – Expanding into Korean Dining and Coffee
Market Price (Feb 17, 2026): ₱209.00 per share
52-Week Range: ₱172.70 – ₱268.00
Market Cap: ₱233 billion
Fundamental Analysis
• Revenue Growth Potential: Korean food and coffee culture have strong appeal among younger demographics. JFC’s entry into these segments could boost same-store sales and expand its portfolio beyond fast food.
• Valuation: At ₱209.00, JFC trades at a premium relative to peers, reflecting investor confidence in its growth story. Its P/E ratio remains elevated compared to the sector, suggesting expectations of strong earnings recovery.
• Risks: Integration challenges and competition from established Korean brands could temper short-term gains.
Technical Analysis
• Support Level: Around ₱200, tested multiple times in February.
• Resistance Level: ₱210–₱215, where selling pressure has emerged.
• Trend: The stock has been consolidating after a decline from its 52-week high of ₱268. Momentum indicators suggest a potential rebound if volume picks up.
Investor Takeaway: JFC’s Korean acquisitions align with its global expansion strategy. Long-term investors may view this as a growth catalyst, though traders should watch for a breakout above ₱215 to confirm bullish momentum.
Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC)
Latest Price (Feb 17, 2026): ₱26.15 per share
52-Week Range: ₱27.00 – ₱38.60
Market Cap: ~₱108 billion (down sharply after Feb 16 sell-off)
What Happened?
- On Feb 16, 2026, the DOE announced that Semirara’s request to extend its coal operating contract in Antique for 13 more years was rejected, citing a DOJ opinion.
- Instead, the DOE will auction the contract later this year, with qualifications—not just price—determining the winner.
SCC’s Disclosure
- SCC clarified that no formal notice of a final decision has been received.
- Management emphasized its decades of experience, technical expertise, and extensive equipment fleet as competitive advantages in the upcoming bidding.
Fundamental Analysis
- Earnings Risk: Coal accounts for nearly half of SCC’s earnings. Losing the contract would be a major setback.
- Dividend Outlook: SCC’s historically high dividend yield (10%+) is now at risk if earnings decline.
- Valuation: At ₱26.15, SCC trades at distressed levels. The market is pricing in uncertainty over its future operations.
Technical Analysis
- Support Level: ₱25–₱26, where panic selling may stabilize.
- Resistance Level: ₱30, the prior breakdown zone.
- Trend: Strong bearish momentum following the contract news. RSI indicates oversold conditions, but recovery depends on clarity from DOE.
Investor Takeaway: SCC faces its biggest challenge in decades. While management insists it has a strong chance in the upcoming auction, uncertainty will weigh heavily on the stock until a final DOE decision is made.
GCash – IPO Prospects
GCash, the country’s leading e-wallet, has long been rumored to pursue a landmark IPO. However, reports indicate that the listing may be delayed to the second half of 2026, citing weak market conditions and cautious investor sentiment.
- Market Impact: A GCash IPO would be one of the largest in Philippine history, potentially revitalizing the PSE and attracting retail investors.
- Challenges: Market volatility and regulatory hurdles have slowed progress.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite delays, anticipation remains high. GCash’s dominant market share in digital payments positions it as a future blue-chip candidate once listed.
Maya – IPO Update
Maya, one of the Philippines’ leading fintech firms, is now actively exploring an IPO that could raise between $500 million and $1 billion, according to Bloomberg. The PLDT-backed company has engaged financial advisers to study the potential listing, with heavyweight investors such as KKR, Tencent, and IFC already on board.
- Timeline: The deal could materialize as early as this year, but the final size and timing remain subject to market conditions.
- Competition: The Philippine fintech sector is heating up, with digital lenders aggressively scaling credit portfolios to capture the underbanked population.
Maya’s Transformation
- From Wallet to Bank: Formerly known as PayMaya, the firm has successfully pivoted into a full-service digital bank.
- User Base: By end-2024, Maya Bank reported 5.4 million customers.
- Loan Portfolio: It disbursed ₱68 billion in loans, leveraging consumer and merchant data to underwrite credit in a country where traditional banking penetration remains low.
Fundamental Insight
- Growth Potential: The IPO would provide fresh capital to expand lending, enhance digital infrastructure, and strengthen market share.
- Risks: Scaling credit portfolios in an underbanked market carries default risks. Market conditions could also delay or resize the offering.
- Valuation Outlook: With strong backers and a proven pivot to profitability, Maya could command a premium valuation, especially if positioned as a regional fintech growth story.
Investor Takeaway: Maya’s IPO could be a landmark event for the Philippine fintech industry, signaling the maturity of digital banking in the country. Its success would not only provide investors with exposure to a fast-growing sector but also intensify competition with GCash.
Current State of the Market
Q1 2026 is shaping up as a volatile but opportunity-rich quarter. Traditional sectors face headwinds, but consumer and fintech stories are emerging as bright spots. The market is consolidating near the 6,300–6,400 range, awaiting clarity from regulators and central bank policy. For investors, the balance lies in defensive plays (dividend stocks) and forward-looking bets on fintech listings that could redefine the Philippine equity landscape.
February 2026 is navigating a mix of corporate expansion, regulatory headwinds, and IPO anticipation. Consumer and fintech sectors are showing resilience, led by Jollibee’s Korean acquisitions and Maya’s IPO plans, while energy and mining stocks like SCC and DMC face pressure from contract uncertainty. Overall, Q1 reflects cautious optimism, with investors balancing defensive plays and forward-looking bets in a market poised for transformation.
